Investment predictions

My new long term investment strategy is to wait until the next big fallout of the financial markets before investing. I still don't think we have hit the bottom. Housing prices are still in decline, meaning foreclosures are sure to mount, and jobs continue to be lost faster than they are being created. I have not tested if there is typically a lag in these statistics being reflected in asset prices or vice-versa, but my intuition tells me that there is likely to be a lag between unemployment rising and company earnings falling. This, therefore implies that when lower earnings are reported the stock prices will fall more. There is the potential that markets predicted lower earnings than were actually reported, and therefore this rebound is justified, but I do not think this is likely.

I predict the Dow will return to its low of 7000 later this year and will continue lower before bouncing back, likely in mid 2010.